Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
